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XAUUSD on the daily timeframe.
Gold has maintained an upward trajectory since late 2024, with a notable rally extending into April 2025, when prices approached the $3,500 level. Since then, the market has transitioned into a broad consolidation phase, oscillating between roughly $3,250 and $3,400. Throughout this period, the 20-period simple moving average has acted as a median axis around which price frequently reverts, while longer-term trend support from the 50- and 200-period SMAs remains intact, confirming an overall bullish bias within a range-bound structure.
Recent price action shows gold trading within a tight band, failing to establish new highs or sustain breakdowns. Price has repeatedly tested the $3,296 zone, currently trading just below the 20-SMA and slightly above the 50-SMA. Reactions to both moving averages have been mixed, with short-lived momentum favoring mean reversion rather than trend continuation, indicating a lack of strong conviction among market participants.
From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators are largely neutral. The RSI hovers near 49, suggesting a balanced state between buying and selling pressure. The stochastic oscillator is also mid-range, showing neither oversold nor overbought conditions. Average True Range (ATR) has declined over recent weeks, reflecting a compression in volatility. Support levels are seen near $3,164 and $3,054, while resistance stands at $3,296 and $3,400, with $3,500 marking a long-term upside target should bullish momentum return.
The main scenario continues to favor range-bound movement, with gold likely to oscillate between $3,250 and $3,350 in the near term. The 20-period SMA remains a magnetic level, and price could continue consolidating around it until a decisive catalyst emerges. Traders may look to fade extremes near the support and resistance bands, capitalizing on the lack of trend commitment.
An alternative scenario would involve a directional breakout. A strong bullish trigger—such as a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation fears, or renewed geopolitical stress—could push gold back toward the $3,400 and $3,500 levels. Conversely, a strengthening U.S. dollar, declining inflation expectations, or an easing in geopolitical tensions could lead to a deeper correction toward $3,164 or even $3,054.
Fundamentally, gold is currently being pulled by two opposing forces. On one side, geopolitical uncertainty, persistent central bank demand, and diversification away from the U.S. dollar support gold prices. On the other, recent U.S. economic data have shown resilience, contributing to occasional dollar strength and suppressing gold rallies. Risk sentiment remains fluid, with markets alternating between risk-on and risk-off postures depending on headlines. This week, attention will turn to U.S. economic releases, like the Fed minutes, which could introduce short-term volatility and influence directional bias.
Summary:
- Gold’s stuck in a $3,250–$3,350 range after a big rally, with momentum flat and indecision rising.
- Volatility’s drying up as price clings to the 20-SMA, signaling a tight coil ready to snap.
- Bullish trend support holds strong on the 50- and 200-SMAs despite the sideways grind.
- Traders watch for a breakout or breakdown fueled by geopolitics and U.S. economic moves.
